Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 3.980684 4.338908 4.735383 5.210899 5.771425 6.418590 7.233603
2025-01-19 3.386551 3.827324 4.347013 5.017439 5.879190 6.980133 8.549202
2025-01-26 3.142703 3.646475 4.269094 5.119461 6.293873 7.935661 10.575227
2025-02-02 3.012645 3.573834 4.296007 5.333890 6.867230 9.213191 13.518732
2025-02-09 2.881264 3.477924 4.270899 5.459513 7.320849 10.414802 16.906388
2025-02-16 2.712896 3.313819 4.130468 5.391703 7.453290 11.107674 19.695587
2025-02-23 2.577055 3.180824 4.017688 5.345514 7.604261 11.866468 23.156997
2025-03-02 2.456367 3.058718 3.907809 5.287069 7.718457 12.581858 27.130927
2025-03-09 2.350957 2.950300 3.807887 5.230802 7.823166 13.307641 31.950763
2025-03-16 2.268712 2.869242 3.741540 5.220509 8.009336 14.280588 39.135970
2025-03-23 2.218739 2.831259 3.736665 5.311561 8.408081 15.934501 53.244341
2025-03-30 2.129142 2.729695 3.625633 5.205537 8.383785 16.459609 62.776146
2025-04-06 2.041459 2.628351 3.511237 5.087695 8.326965 16.914468 74.425783
2025-04-13 1.945670 2.510891 3.365123 4.901121 8.095371 16.774288 80.910112
2025-04-20 1.915735 2.491197 3.374211 4.999179 8.518164 18.940212 135.367564
2025-04-27 1.908286 2.504873 3.437674 5.205184 9.240369 22.724713 400.472534
2025-05-04 1.884805 2.492211 3.456081 5.325771 9.785243 26.394409 5262.557675
2025-05-11 1.830725 2.429040 3.385145 5.260689 9.831022 27.837924 NaN
2025-05-18 1.783601 2.374975 3.326893 5.216346 9.926997 29.684277 NaN
2025-05-25 1.737451 2.320690 3.265474 5.160221 9.981089 31.408736 NaN
2025-06-01 1.694326 2.269683 3.207286 5.106172 10.033182 33.246734 NaN
2025-06-08 1.660479 2.232371 3.171269 5.096284 10.217112 36.294118 NaN
2025-06-15 1.642998 2.220797 3.180024 5.183742 10.724120 42.847921 NaN